Our seasonal forecast model predicts a 27% increase in snow days for the Northeast and Upper Midwest due to a moderate La Niña pattern developing in the Pacific Ocean. Using 40 years of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) data correlated with school closure records, we've identified specific regional patterns that will impact the 2025-2026 winter season.
La Niña's Impact on Winter Weather
The developing La Niña pattern—characterized by cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific—typically brings specific winter weather patterns to North America:
- Wetter and colder conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains
- Drier and warmer conditions in the Southern United States
- More variable weather patterns along the East Coast with potential for significant coastal storms
Our analysis of 40 years of La Niña winters shows that moderate La Niña events (which we're forecasting for 2025-2026) typically result in 15-30% more snow days in susceptible regions compared to neutral years.
Regional Snow Day Forecasts
Based on our analysis, here are the region-specific forecasts for the 2025-2026 winter season:
Northeast and New England
Snow Day Forecast: 30-40% above average
The I-95 corridor can expect 4-6 major snow events (vs. 3 in a typical year), with the potential for several high-impact coastal storms. The first significant snowfall is likely to occur 2-3 weeks earlier than historical averages. Our Snow Day Probability Index shows the highest values in decades for New England, particularly for interior sections of Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine.
Mid-Atlantic
Snow Day Forecast: 15-25% above average
The Mid-Atlantic region will likely experience increased variability, with the potential for fewer overall snow events but greater intensity when they do occur. The I-95 corridor from Washington D.C. to New York City should prepare for 2-3 major snow events with the potential for significant disruption. The snow-to-liquid ratio is expected to be higher than normal, resulting in fluffier, deeper snowfall when conditions are right.
Great Lakes Region
Snow Day Forecast: 35-45% above average
The Great Lakes region should prepare for increased lake-effect snow events starting earlier than usual. With La Niña typically bringing colder air masses across the relatively warm lakes, we expect enhanced lake-effect snow bands to develop more frequently and with greater intensity. Areas downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario are likely to see the most significant impacts, with some locations potentially receiving 30-40% more snowfall than average.
Upper Midwest
Snow Day Forecast: 20-30% above average
The Upper Midwest will likely experience more frequent Alberta Clipper systems, bringing quick-hitting snow events and periods of extreme cold. While individual snowfall amounts may not be record-breaking, the frequency of events and accompanying cold air outbreaks will increase the likelihood of school closures and delays. Wind chill factors will play a significant role in school closure decisions in this region.
Southern States
Snow Day Forecast: Near average (but with high variability)
While La Niña typically brings drier and warmer conditions to the Southern United States, our analysis shows increased potential for 1-2 high-impact winter weather events, particularly in January and February. These events often feature mixed precipitation types, creating dangerous ice accumulations that can lead to extended school closures even with minimal snow accumulation.
Timing of Winter Weather Events
Our forecast indicates some notable timing patterns for the 2025-2026 winter season:
- Earlier Start: The first significant snowfall events are likely to occur 2-3 weeks earlier than historical averages in most northern regions.
- Mid-Winter Peak: January 2026 shows the highest potential for major snow events across most regions, with a secondary peak in late February.
- Extended Season: The winter weather pattern is likely to persist longer into March than typical, especially in the Northeast and Upper Midwest.
Preparing for an Active Winter
With our forecast indicating an above-average winter for snow days in many regions, we recommend:
- School administrators should review and update their winter weather policies and communication plans.
- Families should prepare for more frequent school disruptions, particularly in the Northeast and Great Lakes regions.
- Consider using our School Calendar Sync tool to help manage schedule changes and make-up days.
Our team will continue to refine these forecasts as we approach the winter season, and our Snow Day Calculator will incorporate these seasonal outlook factors into its daily predictions. Stay tuned for monthly updates as we track the development of La Niña and other climate patterns that will influence the upcoming winter.